The first report also indicates that the monthly capacity reserve margin, expressed as a percentage, is 30.7 percent during the peak load hour in December. This is in contrast to the historical planning reserve margin target of 13.75 percent.
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ERCOT on October 2 launched a new Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) report, which replaces its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report. The first MORA report provided an overall assessment for the reporting month of December 2023, and showed low risk for emergency alerts under typical conditions.
“Our goal is to manage a reliable grid under all situations,” said ERCOT Vice President, System Planning and Weatherization Kristi Hobbs. “The MORA report provides a more frequent advance look at resource adequacy with a focus on the likelihood of capacity shortage events for each month.”
Key features of the MORA report will include:
- Capacity Available for Operating Reserves (CAFOR), which is a probability-based assessment of the hourly risks for issuing Energy Emergency Alerts (EEAs), including a severe winter storm scenario.
- Two “typical grid conditions” scenarios for the Peak Demand Hour (Hour Ending 8 a.m.) + Minimum Demand Hour (Hour Ending 5 p.m.).
- A new measure for tracking the extent that the ERCOT region relies on dispatchable resources for meeting the expected monthly peak load.
According to the initial MORA report, there exists a low risk (5.4 percent) of ERCOT having to issue an Energy Emergency Alert during the peak-load hour assuming typical conditions. That probability increases to 18 percent if weather conditions occur similar to those experienced during Winter Storm Elliott.
The first report also indicates that the monthly capacity reserve margin, expressed as a percentage, is 30.7 percent during the peak load hour in December. This is in contrast to the historical planning reserve margin target of 13.75 percent.
ERCOT said that the final SARA report was released in September 2023, and it covered the Fall season (October and November 2023). The MORA report will be released two months prior to each reporting month and is accessible from the Resource Adequacy page of www.ercot.com.